Using Eco Risk Projector to quantify the effect of climate change on aquatic ecosystems

Water resource planners face a growing challenge: how to assess and mitigate the ecological risks posed by a drying climate. With the future of aquatic ecosystems hanging in the balance, tools like Eco Risk Projector are transforming how we plan for water use and management.

Designed specifically for water resource planners, Eco Risk Projector helps compare the impacts of alternative future hydrological scenarios on ecological species and processes. It assesses the performance of ecological models—often habitat suitability models—at numerous sites under varying environmental conditions, primarily those related to water flows. For example, the tool can predict whether a specific flow regime is likely to trigger a fish spawning event or sustain critical ecological processes. By integrating results across sites and over time, the tool provides a spatio-temporal risk assessment, giving planners a clear picture of risks at both local and regional scales.

Recently, the team behind Eco Risk Projector added a game-changing capability: the ability to automatically ingest 44 alternative hydrological scenarios from downscaled global climate models. These scenarios, based on 130 years of daily water flow, evaporation and rainfall data are applied to ecological models for over 30 species and aquatic processes. The system batch-runs these models, summarising and visualising results to highlight the spatial and systemic risks of climate change.

Developing such a sophisticated tool came with challenges. Processing the vast amounts of data required for climate change analysis was daunting. Summarising and visualising the results in a way that was accessible for planners proved equally complex. However, through innovation and persistence, the team overcame these hurdles, creating a universally applicable approach for water planning anywhere that daily water data is available.

Eco Risk Projector doesn’t just offer predictions for single sites—it enables planners to quantify broader spatial impacts, revealing how climate scenarios might affect entire ecosystems. By providing detailed insights into how water resource use and planning affects species and processes, the tool empowers water managers to make informed decisions to ensure the resilience of aquatic ecosystems.

With tools like Eco Risk Projector, planners are equipped to safeguard critical ecological assets and processes, even in the face of a changing climate.